A different quantity from the reported average. print and
summary report the average of the per-observation conditional
predictions \(E[\exp(-u_i) \mid \varepsilon_i]\). That is a property of the
sample in hand. \(E[\exp(-U)]\) is a property of the fitted model, and
it is the number that can be compared across studies.
Closed forms. Available for the half-normal
(\(2e^{\sigma_U^2/2}\Phi(-\sigma_U)\)), exponential
(\(1/(1+\sigma_U)\)), truncated normal, Rayleigh, gamma
(\((1+\theta)^{-k}\)), uniform (\((1-e^{-\theta})/\theta\)) and generalized
exponential (\(2/((\sigma_U+1)(\sigma_U+2))\)). The lognormal, Weibull and
Nakagami have none in elementary terms and are integrated numerically;
method in the returned list says which route was taken.
Every closed form is checked against numerical integration of the same density
in the package's tests, and the density is separately checked against its own
quantile function by simulation. The first catches an algebraic slip; the
second catches a parameter being read off the fit incorrectly, which would
otherwise make both routes agree and both be wrong.
Supra-percentile means are always integrated. Efficiency is decreasing
in \(u\), so the most efficient \(p\) are the smallest \(p\) of \(u\):
the reported value is \(p^{-1}\int_0^{Q(p)} e^{-u}f(u)\,du\). It necessarily
exceeds the unconditional mean and falls as \(p\) rises.