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sparseDFM (version 1.0)

predict.sparseDFM: Forecasting factor estimates and data series.

Description

Predict the next h steps ahead for the factor estimates and the data series. Given information up to time \(t\), a h-step ahead forecast is \(\bm{X}_{t+h}=\bm{\Lambda}\bm{A}^{h}\bm{F}_t+\bm{\Phi}^h\bm{\epsilon}_t\), where \(\bm{\Phi}=0\) for the IID idiosyncratic error case.

Usage

# S3 method for sparseDFM
predict(object, h = 1, standardize = FALSE, alpha_index = "best", ...)

# S3 method for sparseDFM_forecast print(x, ...)

Value

X_hat \(h \times p\) numeric matrix of data series forecasts.

F_hat \(h \times r\) numeric matrix of factor forecasts.

e_hat \(h \times p\) numeric matrix of AR(1) idiosyncratic error forecasts if err=AR1 in sparseDFM.

h forecasts produced for h steps ahead.

err the type of idiosyncratic errors used in sparseDFM.

Prints out the h-step ahead forecast from predict.sparseDFM.

Arguments

object

an object of class 'sparseDFM'.

h

integer. The number of steps ahead to compute the forecast for. Default is \(h=1\).

standardize

logical. Returns data series forecasts in the original data scale if set to FALSE. Default is FALSE.

alpha_index

Choose which L1 penalty parameter to display the results for. Default is 'best'. Otherwise, input a number between 1:length(alpha_grid) that indicates the required alpha parameter.

...

Further print arguments.

x

an object of class 'sparseDFM_forecast' from predict.sparseDFM.