strucchange (version 1.1-2)

Grossarl: Marriages and Births in Grossarl

Description

Data about the number of marriages and illegitimate and legitimate births in the Austrian Alpine village Grossarl in the 18th and 19th century.

Usage

data(Grossarl)

source

Parish registers provide the basic demographic series of baptisms (which is almost equivalent to births in the study area) and marriages. For more information see Veichtlbauer et al. (2002).

Details

The data frame contains historical demographic data from Grossarl, a village in the Alpine region of Salzburg, Austria, during the 18th and 19th century. During this period, the total population of Grossarl did not vary much on the whole, with the very exception of the period of the protestant emigrations in 1731/32.

Especially during the archbishopric, moral interventions aimed at lowering the proportion of illegitimate baptisms. For details see the references.

References

Veichtlbauer O., Hanser E., Zeileis A., Leisch F. (2002), The Impact Of Policy Interventions on a Pre-Industrial Population System in the Austrian Alps, forthcoming.

Zeileis A., Veichtlbauer O. (2002), Policy Interventions Affecting Illegitimacy in Preindustrial Austria: A Structural Change Analysis, In R. Dutter (ed.), Festschrift 50 Jahre �sterreichische Statistische Gesellschaft, 133-146, �sterreichische Statistische Gesellschaft, http://www.statistik.tuwien.ac.at/oezstat/.

Examples

data(Grossarl)

## illegitimate births
######################
## lm + MOSUM
plot(Grossarl$fraction)
fm.min <- lm(fraction ~ politics, data = Grossarl)
fm.max <- lm(fraction ~ politics + morals + nuptiality + lag.marriages,
             data = Grossarl)
fm.final <- step(fm.max)
lines(ts(fitted(fm.min), start = 1700), col = 3)
lines(ts(fitted(fm.final), start = 1700), col = 4)
mos.min <- efp(fraction ~ politics, data = Grossarl, type = "OLS-MOSUM")
mos.final <- efp(fraction ~ politics + morals + nuptiality, data = Grossarl,
                 type = "OLS-MOSUM")
plot(mos.min)
lines(mos.final, lty = 2)

## dating
bp <- breakpoints(fraction ~ 1, data = Grossarl, h = 0.1)
summary(bp)
## RSS, BIC, AIC
plot(bp)
plot(0:8, AIC(bp), type = "b")

## probably use 5 (or maybe 6) breakpoints and compare with
## coding of the factors as used by us
##
## politics                   1803      1816 1850
## morals      1736 1753 1771 1803
## nuptiality                 1803 1810 1816      1883
##
## m = 5            1753 1785           1821 1856 1878
## m = 6       1734 1754 1785           1821 1856 1878
##              6    2    5              1    4    3

fm.bp <- lm(fraction ~ breakfactor(breakpoints(bp, breaks = 6)),
            data = Grossarl)

plot(Grossarl$fraction)
lines(fitted(fm.final), col = 3)
lines(fitted(fm.bp), col = 4)



## marriages
############
## lm + MOSUM
plot(Grossarl$marriages)
fm.min <- lm(marriages ~ politics, data = Grossarl)
fm.final <- lm(marriages ~ politics + morals + nuptiality, data = Grossarl)
lines(ts(fitted(fm.min), start = 1700), col = 3)
lines(ts(fitted(fm.final), start = 1700), col = 4)
mos.min <- efp(marriages ~ politics, data = Grossarl, type = "OLS-MOSUM")
mos.final <- efp(marriages ~ politics + morals + nuptiality, data = Grossarl,
                 type = "OLS-MOSUM")
plot(mos.min)
lines(mos.final, lty = 2)

## dating
bp <- breakpoints(marriages ~ 1, data = Grossarl, h = 0.1)
summary(bp)
## RSS, BIC, AIC
plot(bp)
plot(0:8, AIC(bp), type = "b")

## probably use 3 (or maybe 4) breakpoints and compare with
## coding of the factors as used by us
##
## politics                   1803      1816 1850
## morals      1736 1753 1771 1803
## nuptiality                 1803 1810 1816      1883
##
## m = 3       1738                     1813      1875
## m = 4       1738      1794           1814      1875
##              2         4              1         3
fm.bp <- lm(marriages ~ breakfactor(breakpoints(bp, breaks = 4)),
            data = Grossarl)

plot(Grossarl$marriages)
lines(fitted(fm.final), col = 3)
lines(fitted(fm.bp), col = 4)