rolling_origin: Assessing forecasting accuracy with rolling origin
Description
It uses the model and the time series associated with a grnnForecast
object to assess the forecasting accuracy of the model using the last
h values of the time series to build test sets applying a rolling
origin evaluation.
Usage
rolling_origin(grnnf, h = NULL, rolling = TRUE)
Value
A list containing at least the following fields:
test_sets
a matrix containing the test sets used in the
evaluation. Every row contains a different test set.
predictions
The predictions for the test sets.
errors
The errors for the test sets.
global_accu
Different measures of accuracy applied to all the
errors.
h_accu
Different measures of accuracy applied to all
the errors for every forecasting horizon.
Arguments
grnnf
A grnnForecast object.
h
A positive integer. The forecast horizon. If NULL (the
default) the prediction horizon of the gnnForecast object is used.
rolling
A logical. If TRUE (the default), forecasting horizons
from 1 to h are used. Otherwise, only horizon h is used.
Details
This function assesses the forecast accuracy of the model used by the
grnnForecast object. It uses h different test and training
sets. The first test set consists of the last h values of the time
series (the training set is formed by the previous values). The next test set
consists of the last \(h - 1\) values of the time series and so on (the
last test set is formed by the last value of the time series).