verification (version 1.32)

brier: Brier Score

Description

Calculates verification statistics for probabilistic forecasts of binary events.

Usage

brier(obs, pred, baseline, thresholds = seq(0,1,0.1), bins = TRUE, ...)

Arguments

obs

Vector of binary observations

pred

Vector of probablistic predictions [0,1]

baseline

Vector of climatological (no - skill) forecasts. If this is null, a sample climatology will be calculated.

thresholds

Values used to bin the forecasts. By default the bins are {[0,0.1), [0.1, 0.2), ....} .

bins

If TRUE, thresholds define bins into which the probablistic forecasts are entered and assigned the midpoint as a forecast. Otherwise, each unique forecast is considered as a seperate forecast. For example, set bins to FALSE when deali

...

Optional arguments

Value

• baseline.tf
  Logical indicator of whether climatology was provided.
• bs
  Brier score
• bs.baseline
  Brier Score for climatology
• ss
  Skill score
• bs.reliability
  Reliability portion of Brier score.
• bs.resolution
  Resolution component of Brier score.
• bs.uncert
  Uncertainty component of Brier score.
• y.i
  Forecast bins -- described as the center value of the bins.
• obar.i
  Observation bins -- described as the center value of the bins.
• prob.y
  Proportion of time using each forecast
• obar
  Forecast based on climatology or average sample observations.
• check
  Reliability - resolution + uncertainty should equal brier score.

References

Wilks, D. S. (1995) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Chapter 7, San Diego: Academic Press.

Examples

#  probabilistic/ binary example

pred<- runif(100)
obs<- round(runif(100))
brier(obs, pred)