Calculates the ranked probability score (rps) and
ranked probability skill score (rpss) for probabilistic
forecasts of ordered events.
Usage
rps(obs, pred, baseline=NULL)
Arguments
obs
A vector of observed outcomes. These values correspond to
columns of prediction probabilities.
pred
A matrix of probabilities for each outcome
occurring. Each column represents a category of prediction.
baseline
If NULL (default) the probability based on the
sample data of each event to occur. Alternatively, a
vector the same length of the as the number categories can be
entered.
Value
rpsRanked probability scores
rpssRanked probability skill score. Uses baseline or
sample climatology as a references score.
rps.climRanked probability score for baseline forecast.
References
WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Verification - Forecast Verification - Issues, Methods and FAQ
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/verif_web_page.html#RPS
Wilks, D. S. (2005) Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chapter 7, San Diego: Academic Press.
### Example from Wilks, note without a baseline and only one### forecast, the rpss and ss are not too meaningfull.rps( obs = c(1), pred = matrix(c(0.2, 0.5, 0.3), nrow = 1))