SpecsVerification (version 0.5-3)

eurotempforecast: Seasonal ensemble forecast of European average summer temperature


A hindcast dataset of average European (30N,75N,12.5W,42.5E) summer (June/July/August) surface temperatures. Forecasts were initialised in May the same year. Observations and 15-member ensemble forecasts were derived from the publicly available NCEP Reanalysis (Suranjana, 2010) and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (Suranjana, 2014), respectively. The data was downloaded through the ECOMS User Data Gateway (Santander Meteorology Group, 2015).





Variables contained in the data set:

  • `obs` average European summer temperature observations

  • `ens` mean-debiased ensemble forecast data, i.e. mean(ens) == mean(obs)

  • `obs.lag` the observations lagged by one year, same length as `obs`

  • `obs.bin` binary observations (0 or 1), obs[i] = 1 indicates that the temperature of year i exceeded the temperature of year i-1

  • `ens.bin` binary ensemble forecast (each member is either 0 or 1), ens[i, j] = 1 if the j-th ensemble member in year i exceeded the observed temperature of year i-1

  • `obs.cat` categorical observations. obs.cat[i] is either 1, 2, and 3, indicating that the temperature in year i was lower, similar, higher than temperature in year i-1. Similar is defined as within a half degree interval centered around last years temperature.

  • `ens.cat` categorical ensemble forecast. ens.cat[i, j] is either 1, 2, or 3. The categories are defined as for `obs.cat`.


Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015.1057. 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1 Saha, Suranjana and Coauthors, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Clim., 27, 2185--2208, 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1 Santander Meteorology Group (2015). ecomsUDG.Raccess: R interface to the ECOMS User Data Gateway. R package version 4.2-0. http://meteo.unican.es/trac/wiki/udg/ecoms